Manchester United arrive at this derby having won just two of their last five across all competitions, with two defeats already on the board. Four of those five games produced goals at both ends, and four injury absences - including Ugarte and Amad - thin the midfield further. City, by contrast, have won four of their last five, keeping two clean sheets and conceding only five goals in total. Doku and O'Reilly are sidelined for the visitors, but the squad depth is clearly superior. In the two most recent head-to-heads, neither game saw both teams score, and United failed to find the net in one of those two meetings. The model puts City's win probability at 71 per cent. The market prices that at 2.10, which sits above the implied 47 per cent - clear value on the away side. City DNB at 1.58 is the main play. As an alternative, BTTS No at 2.62 appeals given the h2h pattern and City's defensive solidity.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 17.01.26 | Premier League | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 14.09.25 | Premier League | 3–0 | O2.5 |
| 06.04.25 | Premier League | 0–0 | U2.5 |
| 15.12.24 | Premier League | 1–2 | O2.5 |
| 25.05.24 | FA Cup | 1–2 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service