Manchester City arrive here in strong domestic form, winning four of their last five across all competitions and keeping three clean sheets in that run. Ipswich have lost three of their last five, conceded in all five matches, and carry zero clean sheets over that stretch. The class gap is stark.
In two recent Premier League meetings, City have won both, scoring 10 and conceding just 1. City scored in all 5 of their last five games; Ipswich conceded in all 5 of theirs. Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of City's last five and in 3 of Ipswich's last five. The model puts City's win probability at 90 per cent.
The straight home price at 1.22-1.26 offers little room. The AH -1 line at 1.31-1.32 is the play: City won 6-0 and 4-1 in the two previous meetings, and Ipswich's defensive record gives no reason for confidence. Back City AH -1 at 1.32.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 19.01.25 | Premier League | 0–6 | O2.5 |
| 24.08.24 | Premier League | 4–1 | O2.5 |
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