Malmo arrive here with three wins from their last five across all competitions, keeping three clean sheets in that span. Kalmar, by contrast, have failed to score in all five of their recent outings and lost four of them. Five absentees in Malmo's squad add a note of caution, but the opposition's attacking record is so poor it barely matters.
Kalmar have scored in zero of their last five matches per the aggregates, conceding eight goals across four losses. Malmo have kept clean sheets in three of five recent games. Both head-to-head meetings this season produced goals at both ends, yet Kalmar's current form suggests they cannot replicate that output here.
Malmo DNB at 1.28-1.32 is the play. The model puts home-win probability at 65 percent, making Draw No Bet a cleaner entry than the raw 1X2. If Malmo win, you collect; a draw refunds. Kalmar's goal drought makes the risk manageable.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 20.07.26 | Allsvenskan | 2–2 | O2.5 |
| 20.03.26 | Club Friendlies | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 24.08.24 | Allsvenskan | 2–2 | O2.5 |
| 24.05.24 | Allsvenskan | 5–0 | O2.5 |
| 08.10.23 | Allsvenskan | 1–0 | U2.5 |
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