Malmo arrive at round 18 with six first-team absentees, including Pontus Jansson and Anders Christiansen, and a five-game run that reads W2 D1 L2. Their defensive record in that stretch is porous: they conceded in 4 of those 5 matches. Djurgarden are wobbling too, back-to-back defeats before this trip, but their defensive numbers hold up better: only 4 goals allowed in 5 games and 3 clean sheets. The head-to-head, from Malmo's perspective, shows 0 BTTS in 2 meetings and 0 games over 2.5 goals. Both sides are short of their best, but Malmo's injury list is the deciding factor. The model gives Djurgarden a 45 percent win probability against 32 for Malmo. At 2.60 with bet365, that is genuine value. Back Djurgarden on the 1X2.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 17.04.26 | Allsvenskan | 0–1 | U2.5 |
| 20.09.25 | Allsvenskan | 0–1 | U2.5 |
| 29.03.25 | Allsvenskan | 0–1 | U2.5 |
| 01.09.24 | Allsvenskan | 4–0 | O2.5 |
| 25.04.24 | Allsvenskan | 0–1 | U2.5 |
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