Mainz arrive at round 5 with three wins from their last five competitive outings, including a 4-3 away thriller at Monchengladbach. Four key absentees are a concern, but Leverkusen also travel with four players sidelined. The visitors have won three of five recent games yet dropped points at Augsburg and, more tellingly, lost at Elversberg. Market has Leverkusen as clear favourites at 2.20.
The head-to-head record over five meetings gives Leverkusen three wins and two draws, but Mainz have scored in four of those five clashes. Both teams have kept three clean sheets each across their last five fixtures, yet combined recent form shows high-scoring tendencies: Mainz 13 goals scored in five, Leverkusen 12. The model puts Mainz home win probability at 51 percent, well above the implied 34 percent in the 3.00 price.
At 3.00 Mainz alone is value, but the safer route is the 1X double chance at 1.67 (bet365). The model's 73 percent home-or-draw probability comfortably covers that line. Take Mainz double chance at 1.67.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 28.02.26 | Bundesliga | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 18.10.25 | Bundesliga | 3–4 | O2.5 |
| 17.05.25 | Bundesliga | 2–2 | O2.5 |
| 14.01.25 | Bundesliga | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 23.02.24 | Bundesliga | 2–1 | O2.5 |
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