Macara host Santos in the Sudamericana last 16, second leg. Macara lost the first leg 1-2 in Ambato but showed fight across five recent games: 3W-1D-1L, 10 goals scored. Santos arrive with a 2-1 aggregate lead and six players on the injury list, yet their defensive record over five recent outings reads 3 clean sheets and only 3 goals conceded. Two very different offensive profiles meet here.
The key numbers: Santos scored in just 3 of their last 5 games and kept BTTS to only 1 of 5. The model puts Under 2.5 at 81% probability, well above the implied 59% from the 1.70 market price. Macara have zero clean sheets in five, but Santos' defensive solidity on the road (3-0 vs Vasco most recently) caps expectations on both ends.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 1.70 is the play. Santos defend their lead, Macara need to attack but face a disciplined backline even without several key absentees. The model edge here is clear.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 14.08.26 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 2–1 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service