Lyon host Rennes in Ligue 1 Round 5 carrying mixed but encouraging form: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss across their last 5 games, scoring in 4 of those 5. Rennes arrive unbeaten in 5 outings (3W, 2D), yet the model gives Lyon a 53% win probability against just 19% for the visitors. The home side holds a clear edge here.
The key inputs: Lyon's 81% home-win-or-draw probability makes the DNB a strong structural play. In head-to-head history, Lyon have kept zero clean sheets in 5 meetings, which tempers a straight win bet. The model prices a Lyon win at 53% versus the bookmaker's implied 47% at 2.10, a meaningful edge.
Lyon DNB at 1.58 is the play. If Lyon win or draw, the bet is safe - only a Rennes win loses. With the model at 81% for no Rennes win, that price carries genuine value.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 03.05.26 | Ligue 1 | 4–2 | O2.5 |
| 14.09.25 | Ligue 1 | 3–1 | O2.5 |
| 26.04.25 | Ligue 1 | 4–1 | O2.5 |
| 18.08.24 | Ligue 1 | 3–0 | O2.5 |
| 26.01.24 | Ligue 1 | 2–3 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service