Lyon arrive in Ligue 1 round 7 with genuine momentum: 3 wins from their last 5 across all competitions, including a 3-2 Europa League win over Crystal Palace and a 4-0 demolition of Rennes at home. Nice, meanwhile, have lost 2 of their last 5 and head into this fixture without four injured players. Lyon also carry three injury absences but hold clear home advantage.
The h2h record is decisive. Lyon have won 4 of the last 5 meetings, scoring 11 goals and conceding just 4. Crucially, only 2 of those 5 fixtures produced BTTS, and Lyon kept 3 clean sheets. The model puts BTTS probability at just 23% and under 2.5 goals at 67%. Nice have failed to score in 2 of their last 5 games, and Lyon have kept 2 clean sheets in their last 5.
Main tip: Lyon DNB at 1.27. The model puts Lyon's win probability at 71% and home-or-draw at 93%. DNB eliminates draw risk at a workable price. Alt: BTTS No at 2.10, backed by the h2h pattern and both defences showing resilience.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 15.02.26 | Ligue 1 | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 18.10.25 | Ligue 1 | 3–2 | O2.5 |
| 09.03.25 | Ligue 1 | 0–2 | U2.5 |
| 01.12.24 | Ligue 1 | 4–1 | O2.5 |
| 16.02.24 | Ligue 1 | 1–0 | U2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service