Lyon enter round 3 with five goals scored across their last five games in all competitions and an unbeaten head-to-head record against Auxerre (3W 2D 0L). Auxerre arrive in poor shape: two straight Ligue 1 losses, 8 goals conceded in those two matches, and five players on the injury list including key defenders Okoh and Sierralta.
The model sits at 95% for a Lyon home win. H2h: 4 of 5 meetings produced over 2.5 goals and Auxerre failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of those 5. Auxerre have conceded in 4 of their last 5 games across all competitions. Lyon scored in all 5 of their last 5.
At 1.85 (bet365), Lyon AH -1 is the play. The model's edge over the implied probability is clear, and Auxerre's defensive injury crisis makes covering a one-goal handicap very realistic. Verdict: Lyon AH -1 at 1.85.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 25.04.26 | Ligue 1 | 3–2 | O2.5 |
| 23.11.25 | Ligue 1 | 0–0 | U2.5 |
| 13.04.25 | Ligue 1 | 1–3 | O2.5 |
| 27.10.24 | Ligue 1 | 2–2 | O2.5 |
| 08.09.23 | Club Friendlies | 3–2 | O2.5 |
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