Luxembourg arrive in fine form, winning 4 of their last 5 games and conceding in only 2 of those 5 outings. Their last Nations League outing was a 2-1 win at Bulgaria. Iceland are winless in 5, picking up 3 draws and 2 losses, with 3 injured players sidelined. Both sides scored in just 1 of Luxembourg's last 5, and Iceland have kept zero clean sheets across theirs.
The key numbers: Luxembourg have gone over 2.5 in just 2 of 5 recent games; Iceland the same, 2 of 5. The two head-to-head meetings produced 4 goals total across 2 games, with only 1 going over 2.5. Iceland have conceded in all 5 of their last matches, but their attack is muted, scoring in only 3 of 5. Under 2.5 is priced at 1.78 (Marathon).
Verdict: a low-scoring contest is the model's call. Luxembourg's defensive solidity (3 clean sheets in 5) and Iceland's blunt attack point firmly to Under 2.5 goals. Take it at 1.78.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 13.10.23 | UEFA European Championship Qualifiers | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 08.09.23 | UEFA European Championship Qualifiers | 3–1 | O2.5 |
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