Luxembourg host Bulgaria in UEFA Nations League C, Round 4. Luxembourg won the reverse fixture 2-1 ten days ago, yet both sides arrive in poor shape: the hosts have lost 3 of their last 5, while Bulgaria are winless in 5 (0W-2D-3L). Goals have been scarce across this rivalry, with only 4 goals scored across 4 head-to-head meetings.
The model puts Under 2.5 goals at 78% probability. The h2h record backs that up hard: only 1 of the 4 meetings went over 2.5, and BTTS landed just once in 4. Luxembourg scored in only 2 of their last 5 games; Bulgaria also scored in just 2 of 5. Bookmakers price Under 2.5 at 1.62 (bet365), which sits well below model fair value.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 1.62. The defensive profile of both squads, a low-scoring h2h series and the model's 78% signal all point the same way. Confidence is solid without being extreme.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 26.09.26 | UEFA Nations League | 1–2 | O2.5 |
| 15.11.24 | UEFA Nations League | 0–1 | U2.5 |
| 12.10.24 | UEFA Nations League | 0–0 | U2.5 |
| 20.11.22 | Friendlies | 0–0 | U2.5 |
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