Lorient arrive at round 4 with a single Ligue 1 win from three outings, scoring just twice in those games. Toulouse are in even worse shape: zero wins in their last five matches across all competitions, and they have found the net in only 2 of those 5 games. Both squads are misfiring badly in attack, and the h2h record underlines a tight, low-scoring rivalry. The model's number is decisive: 92% probability of under 2.5 goals. The two inputs driving it are Toulouse's attacking output - scored in just 2 of 5 recent games - and the h2h, where only 1 of the last 5 meetings cleared the 2.5 bar. Over 2.5 is priced at 1.91-2.00, implying roughly 50% by the market; our model puts it at 8%. That gap is the edge. Under 2.5 at 1.80-1.91 is the clear selection. The match has low-scoring written all over it, and the price is fair for a high-conviction under play.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 21.03.26 | Ligue 1 | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 09.11.25 | Ligue 1 | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 28.04.24 | Ligue 1 | 1–2 | O2.5 |
| 03.12.23 | Ligue 1 | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 23.04.23 | Ligue 1 | 0–1 | U2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service