Liverpool arrive at this UCL round-3 fixture on the back of four wins from their last five, including a 6-3 demolition of LASK in Europe. The one blemish was a 0-3 home loss to Manchester City, but four attacking absences - Szoboszlai, Gakpo, Isak and Ngumoha - add a note of caution. Villarreal, missing Buchanan and Pepe, beat Napoli 3-1 in their UCL opener and have scored in three of their last five games, conceding in four of those five.
The numbers point clearly toward goals. Liverpool have gone over 2.5 in four of their last five matches and registered BTTS in three. Villarreal mirror that, with three BTTS and three over-2.5 results from five. The model puts the probability of both teams scoring at 85% and over 2.5 goals at 95%. Liverpool are priced at 1.48 to win, with BTTS YES available at 1.62 (bet365).
The main play is BTTS YES at 1.62. Liverpool's defensive absences and Villarreal's proven attacking output across recent weeks make goals at both ends the likeliest outcome, even in a match Liverpool are expected to control.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service