Liverpool opened the league season with a 2-2 draw at Newcastle, carrying three absentees into this home fixture. Nottingham arrive with two straight Premier League defeats, including a 0-1 home loss to Leeds on matchday one, and Ryan Yates sidelined. The visitors have scored in only 2 of their last 5 matches across all competitions. In five recent head-to-heads, both teams have scored together just once, and four of those five games produced fewer than 2.5 goals. The pattern points firmly toward a tight, low-scoring contest at Anfield. Liverpool's DNB at 1.21 (bet365) is the pick. Nottingham's attacking output is too thin to make the draw price worth the exposure, and the home side simply needs to avoid a defeat to return the stake. Confidence is kept modest given Liverpool's own inconsistency in pre-season.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 22.02.26 | Premier League | 0–1 | U2.5 |
| 22.11.25 | Premier League | 0–3 | O2.5 |
| 14.01.25 | Premier League | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 14.09.24 | Premier League | 0–1 | U2.5 |
| 02.03.24 | Premier League | 0–1 | U2.5 |
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