Liverpool arrive unbeaten in five outings, picking up wins over Ipswich and Atletico Madrid. Fulham, by contrast, have lost three of their last five competitive matches, conceding seven goals in the process. The Reds hold a clear home advantage and the model puts their win probability at 84 per cent. Head-to-head history backs a high-scoring contest: four of the last five meetings between these sides produced over 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring in four of those five fixtures. Liverpool have gone over 2.5 in three of their last five games; Fulham match that same mark. The model places the over 2.5 probability at 86 per cent. At 1.42 with bet365, Over 2.5 goals carries genuine value. The alt plays on BTTS at 1.57, supported by four BTTS results in five head-to-heads.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 11.04.26 | Premier League | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 04.01.26 | Premier League | 2–2 | O2.5 |
| 06.04.25 | Premier League | 3–2 | O2.5 |
| 14.12.24 | Premier League | 2–2 | O2.5 |
| 21.04.24 | Premier League | 1–3 | O2.5 |
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