Lillestrom arrive at round 14 carrying four defeats in their last five outings, friendlies included, and three key absences through injury. The numbers are ugly, but context matters: KFUM Oslo have lost three of their last five and conceded nine goals across that run, identical to the hosts. The visitors shipped a 1-5 to Molde in their most recent friendly and have managed only one win in five.
Lillestrom kept zero clean sheets in five, but KFUM scored in just three of their last five. The model puts the home win probability at 71 %, implying a fair DNB price around 1.25 - the market is offering 1.30 at bet365, a thin but genuine edge. Both sides conceded nine goals in five, yet BTTS landed in only two of KFUM's last five, which tempers the goals case.
The 71 % home win probability is the anchor. DNB at 1.30 (bet365) removes the draw risk on a side that, despite poor form, faces an away team with serious defensive frailty. Back Lillestrom DNB.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 07.02.26 | Club Friendlies | 7–2 | O2.5 |
| 25.06.25 | NM Cupen | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 28.02.25 | Club Friendlies | 0–5 | O2.5 |
| 30.08.24 | Eliteserien | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 27.06.24 | Eliteserien | 2–1 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service