Lille host Brest in Ligue 1 round 7, carrying a 3W-0D-2L record across their last five outings. The heavy loss at Arsenal clouds the picture, but domestically they have been solid, beating Le Havre and Troyes without conceding. Brest arrive in erratic form: a 5-1 demolition of Angers sits alongside defeats to Auxerre and PSG, and they have kept zero clean sheets in five matches.
The model puts Lille's win probability at 61%, with home-or-draw at 84%. That is the engine behind the DNB call. Head-to-head, Brest have kept a clean sheet just once in the last five meetings from Lille's perspective, and Brest's defence has conceded in all 5 of their last five games. Four of Brest's last five matches produced BTTS, pointing to an open game.
Lille DNB at 1.38 (bet365) is the main play. The model's 84% home-or-draw probability gives a clear edge over the implied 72%. For the risk-takers, BTTS YES at 1.62 is backed by four BTTS in five h2h meetings and Brest's leaky rearguard.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 14.02.26 | Ligue 1 | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 17.08.25 | Ligue 1 | 3–3 | O2.5 |
| 10.05.25 | Ligue 1 | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 06.12.24 | Ligue 1 | 3–1 | O2.5 |
| 17.03.24 | Ligue 1 | 1–1 | U2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service