Liechtenstein arrive in Nations League D with one win in their last five, conceding 15 goals across those games. They scored in only 2 of 5 matches and kept just one clean sheet. Lithuania are not in brilliant form either, but their defensive record is notably tighter: 7 goals against in five outings, two clean sheets, and BTTS triggered zero times in that run. The gap in quality is clear. The key numbers: Liechtenstein conceded in 4 of 5 recent games, Lithuania scored in only 1 of 5. That signals a low-scoring Lithuanian win rather than a goal fest. With Lithuania at 1.30, the risk-adjusted case is straightforward. Liechtenstein have not beaten Lithuania in any recorded meeting. The away side should control this comfortably. Verdict: Lithuania win at 1.30.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
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