Levski Sofia step into the Europa League group phase off mixed domestic form: 3 wins in 5 but also a 2-4 Super Cup defeat and 4 injured players absent. Salzburg arrive in a different gear entirely, unbeaten in 5 with 4 wins, and have scored in every one of those matches. The class gap between the Austrian title contenders and a Bulgarian top-flight side is significant at this level.
The key numbers: Salzburg scored 16 goals in their last 5, conceding only 3. Levski managed 8 goals scored against 6 conceded in the same window. Over 2.5 landed in 4 of Salzburg's last 5 outings and 3 of Levski's. The market prices Salzburg at 2.30 to win, with BTTS YES sitting at 1.50 and Over 2.5 at 1.62.
The model points to Salzburg to win (DNB) at 1.68. With Levski having scored in 4 of 5 recent games, BTTS YES at 1.50 is the main tip: both sides have the tools to get on the scoresheet, but Salzburg's attacking output should dominate the total.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
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