Levante host Athletic Bilbao at the Ciutat de Valencia on matchday 6, carrying a shaky 1W-2D-2L record and a goal difference of minus two. The Granotas just shipped four at home to Barcelona, and with Primo and Eyong sidelined, the defensive cover is thin. Bilbao arrive with genuine momentum: two wins from five, including a 3-0 demolition of Atletico Madrid, and the Basques kept two clean sheets on the road this season. Head-to-head history is damning for the hosts - Levante lost both recent meetings, conceding six goals across those two games without a clean sheet. Bilbao are missing four players but their core is intact, and a 43% model probability for the away win sits well above the implied 48% in the 2.1 price. Back Bilbao at 2.1 - the value is real and the pattern is clear.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 08.02.26 | La Liga | 4–2 | O2.5 |
| 29.11.25 | La Liga | 0–2 | U2.5 |
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