The model puts Lyon's win probability at 77%, against a Lens side that has lost two of their last five across all competitions and is missing four players through injury. Lyon arrive unbeaten in their last five (3W 2D), scoring 10 goals and conceding just 3, with clean sheets in 2 of those outings. Lens have scored in 4 of 5 recent games but also conceded in 4 of 5, pointing to a leaky backline that Lyon can exploit.
The head-to-head numbers are the second key driver. From Lens's perspective over the last five meetings, Lyon have won 3, drawn 1 and lost only 1, with Lens conceding 9 goals in total across those fixtures. BTTS landed in just 1 of those 5 h2h games, and Lyon kept the scoreline clean in 3 of them. The model's 62% no-BTTS probability reinforces that Lyon's defence is likely to stay solid here.
At 2.75 (bet365), the away win is firmly mispriced relative to the 77% model estimate. Main tip: Lyon to win. As an alternative, BTTS No at 2.62 offers solid value given the h2h pattern.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 17.05.26 | Ligue 1 | 0–4 | O2.5 |
| 16.08.25 | Ligue 1 | 0–1 | U2.5 |
| 04.05.25 | Ligue 1 | 1–2 | O2.5 |
| 15.09.24 | Ligue 1 | 0–0 | U2.5 |
| 03.03.24 | Ligue 1 | 0–3 | O2.5 |
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