Leeds return to Elland Road having drawn both Premier League home fixtures this season, while Newcastle arrive unbeaten in five across all competitions, winning three. Both sides are missing defenders - Joe Rodon and Ilia Gruev for Leeds, Dan Burn, Joelinton and William Osula for Newcastle - which shapes the tactical picture. The head-to-head record is thin at two meetings: a 0-0 draw at Leeds in August 2025 and a 3-4 defeat away in January 2026. In recent form, Leeds have scored in all five of their last five matches and conceded in three. Newcastle have scored in all five and conceded in three as well. The model puts the under 2.5 probability at 71 percent, yet both teams scoring sits at only 37 percent. Leeds Draw No Bet at 1.71 (Marathon) is the play: the model gives them a 41 percent win probability and 32 percent draw probability, making the DNB price fair value against a Newcastle side that has not won away in the Premier League this term.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 07.01.26 | Premier League | 4–3 | O2.5 |
| 30.08.25 | Premier League | 0–0 | U2.5 |
| 13.05.23 | Premier League | 2–2 | O2.5 |
| 31.12.22 | Premier League | 0–0 | U2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service