Leeds host a Manchester United side that has not won in five outings across all competitions, collecting two draws and three defeats. United arrive with six players sidelined, including both senior goalkeepers and key fullbacks Luke Shaw and Mazraoui. Leeds, for all their inconsistency, have won their last two home league fixtures against this opponent and carry a model probability of 55% to take all three points here.
The numbers back a home leaning. United have conceded in all five recent matches and kept no clean sheets. Leeds have scored in 4 of their last 5 games. The h2h record over three meetings shows Leeds unbeaten: one win, two draws, zero defeats. United's away DNB sits at 2.10-2.13 across books; Leeds DNB is priced at 1.70-1.73, reflecting the model edge.
At 1.73 (Marathon), Leeds DNB removes the draw risk on a side whose opponent is winless, injury-hit and leaking goals. That is the play.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 13.04.26 | Premier League | 1–2 | O2.5 |
| 04.01.26 | Premier League | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 19.07.25 | Club Friendlies | 0–0 | U2.5 |
| 12.07.23 | Club Friendlies | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 12.02.23 | Premier League | 0–2 | U2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service