Leeds arrive into Round 5 with a 4-1 demolition of Newcastle still fresh, while Crystal Palace head north having lost to Ipswich at home last weekend. Joe Rodon is sidelined for the hosts; Palace are without goalkeeper Henderson, defender Riad and striker Mateta, a triple absence that blunts their attacking threat considerably.
Leeds have scored in all 5 of their last 5 matches. The model puts the home-win probability at 87 percent and the home-win-or-draw figure at 95 percent. In the two most recent head-to-heads, Leeds have not lost once, including a 4-1 home win in December 2025.
Draw No Bet on Leeds at 1.28 (bet365) removes the slim draw risk from what looks a one-sided contest. Conviction is firm, not absolute, given the short price.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 15.03.26 | Premier League | 0–0 | U2.5 |
| 20.12.25 | Premier League | 4–1 | O2.5 |
| 09.04.23 | Premier League | 1–5 | O2.5 |
| 09.10.22 | Premier League | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 22.07.22 | Club Friendlies | 1–1 | U2.5 |
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