Via del Mare has been a brutal place for Lecce this season: three defeats in five games, ten goals conceded, and a squad that has only scored in 2 of those 5 matches. Bologna arrive with their own wounds, winless in five Serie A outings, and without Dovbyk, Orsolini, El Azzouzi and Zortea in the squad. Two sides searching for a foothold, not a statement.
The numbers frame a tight, cautious contest. Lecce have conceded in 4 of their last 5, but Bologna have scored in just 2 of theirs. Head-to-head over five meetings, Lecce have managed only 2 goals total. The model puts the draw at 35% probability - higher than either win - and Under 2.5 at 77%. With odds of 3.40 on offer, the draw carries genuine overlay.
I am taking the DRAW at 3.40. Lecce are not good enough to win this; Bologna are too short-handed and inconsistent to push through. A low, scrappy stalemate fits every layer of the data. For the risk play, Under 2.5 goals at 1.73 suits the same logic at a safer price.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 12.04.26 | Serie A | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 28.09.25 | Serie A | 2–2 | O2.5 |
| 09.02.25 | Serie A | 0–0 | U2.5 |
| 02.11.24 | Serie A | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 11.02.24 | Serie A | 4–0 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service