Le Havre arrive at Matchday 4 in poor shape, losing two of three Ligue 1 games and missing Argney, Zagadou and Mambimbi through injury. Angers have won 3 of their last 5 but conceded in all 5 outings, suggesting a leaky defence that still struggles to dominate. The head-to-head picture reinforces caution: only 1 of the last 5 meetings between these sides produced more than 2.5 goals. The model's two key inputs are the h2h over-2.5 rate (1 in 5) and Le Havre's combined goal output of just 5 scored and 7 conceded in 5 games, pointing to a low-tempo contest. Under 2.5 goals lands at 71% model probability against a market price of 1.73, which implies roughly 58%. That gap is where the value sits. Tip: Under 2.5 goals at 1.73.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 18.04.26 | Ligue 1 | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 04.01.26 | Ligue 1 | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 26.07.25 | Club Friendlies | 0–0 | U2.5 |
| 02.02.25 | Ligue 1 | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 01.12.24 | Ligue 1 | 0–1 | U2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service