LDU Quito head into this Libertadores last-16 second leg holding home advantage after a 1-1 draw in Mirassol. The Ecuadorians have won 3 of their last 5 across all competitions and kept 2 clean sheets. Mirassol arrive without a win in their last 5, conceding in all 5 of those games, and are missing Aldo Jose and Negueba.
The model puts LDU's win probability at 67%, well clear of the market's implied 64% at 1.57. More striking: over 2.5 goals sits at 94% model probability, driven by Mirassol conceding 11 goals in their last 5 outings and BTTS landing in 4 of those. The head-to-head across 3 meetings has produced just 1 BTTS result, but form says the goals are coming.
The main play is LDU Quito on the 1X2 at 1.57. The model edge is modest but real. As the alt, BTTS YES at 2.20 is the higher-variance play that the 88% model probability makes hard to ignore.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 14.08.26 | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 08.05.26 | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 15.04.26 | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 2–0 | U2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service