The Olimpico is a fortress right now, and Monza arrive as a side that has kept zero clean sheets across their last five outings. Lazio are unbeaten in their last five, with three wins and 11 goals scored, while a heavily depleted defensive unit - six first-team players out injured - has not stopped them from controlling games. Monza have conceded in all five of their recent matches and lost twice in that span.
The head-to-head record tells a stark story: Lazio have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of the last five meetings, piling in 11 goals and conceding just 4. The model gives Lazio an 81% win probability, which makes the straight 1X2 price of 1.60 thin. The AH -1 at 2.05 (bet365) is where the real value hides, asking Lazio to win by two or more - something they did 5-1 in this exact fixture last February.
Take Lazio AH -1 at 2.05. Six absentees is a concern, but Monza's leaky defence and a dominant h2h record tip the scales. This is the bigger price worth chasing.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 09.02.25 | Serie A | 5–1 | O2.5 |
| 10.11.24 | Serie A | 0–1 | U2.5 |
| 04.05.24 | Serie A | 2–2 | O2.5 |
| 23.09.23 | Serie A | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 02.04.23 | Serie A | 0–2 | U2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service