Latvia arrive in wretched form, scoring in just 2 of their last 5 matches and conceding in 2. Three clean sheets tell a story of sterility, not solidity: 2 goals for across five games. Montenegro, by contrast, have scored in all 5 of their recent outings, collecting 10 goals and 3 wins. Kristers Penkevics is out for the hosts; Adam Marusic misses for the visitors but the Montenegrin attack has shown it needs no single carrier.
The model outputs a 95% away-win probability. Latvia's DNB price sits at 3.10 (bet365/Marathon), while Montenegro's Draw No Bet comes at 1.35. H2H offers thin data but Latvia have 0 wins in 2 meetings. The no-BTTS probability is modelled at 100%, consistent with Latvia scoring in only 2 of 5 recent games.
Montenegro DNB at 1.35 is the play: the model leaves almost no room for a Latvian upset, and the price still carries value over the implied 74% breakeven. Alt: BTTS No at 1.73, backed by Latvia's chronic attacking drought.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 07.09.21 | UEFA World Cup Qualifiers | 0–0 | U2.5 |
| 24.03.21 | UEFA World Cup Qualifiers | 1–2 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service