Latvia arrive winless in their last three outings (two losses, one win over Gibraltar) and have scored just 3 goals across 5 recent matches. Cyprus lost 1-2 to Montenegro on matchday 1 and carry a mixed record of 2W-1D-2L in their last five. Both sides enter this Nations League C round-2 fixture short of confidence and without key absentees Penkevics and Satsias.
The numbers push firmly toward a tight, low-scoring game. Latvia registered only 1 over-2.5 result in 5 matches; Cyprus posted 2. Combined, that is 3 over-2.5 games from 10, a 30% hit rate. The sole head-to-head on record ended 1-1, staying comfortably under. BTTS landed just once in Latvia's last five and three times in Cyprus's, but total goals per game remains low on both sides.
The model flags Under 2.5 goals as the standout angle. With 70% of combined recent games staying under, and the market offering 1.70, there is value. Main tip: Under 2.5 at 1.70.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 21.03.24 | Friendlies | 1–1 | U2.5 |
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