KuPS arrive in commanding form: 4 wins and 1 draw across their last 5 matches, scoring 13 goals and conceding just 5. Crucially, they already beat Vardar 2-0 in the first leg - away - giving them a substantial cushion heading into this home tie. Vardar's recent competitive record is thin; their two friendlies inflated the numbers, and their sole competitive result in this window was that first-leg defeat.
The key inputs: KuPS scored in all 5 of their last 5 matches, while Vardar conceded in 3 of their last 5. The DNB price on KuPS sits at 1.48 (Marathon), reflecting a side that simply hasn't lost in recent weeks and holds a two-goal aggregate lead. Vardar must attack, which could open space - but their 8 goals in 5 games doesn't suggest a side capable of overturning this deficit.
Model verdict: KuPS DNB at 1.48. The aggregate lead plus home advantage makes a KuPS exit deeply unlikely. Alt play: Over 2.5 goals at 1.77 - KuPS have gone over 2.5 in 3 of 5, and an open game suits that line.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 07.07.26 | UEFA Champions League | 0–2 | U2.5 |
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