Kalmar arrive at round 14 with a mixed run: a home draw against Malmo, a road loss to Hammarby and a tidy 3-0 win over Orgryte. Malcolm Stolt is absent. Mjallby come off a 3-0 Champions League qualifying win over Lincoln Red Imps and, while their Allsvenskan form is inconsistent, they have kept two clean sheets in their last five across all competitions.
The head-to-head record is the story here. Kalmar have lost all five meetings with Mjallby on record, conceding 14 goals and scoring just 2. The model gives Mjallby a 36% win probability against 35% for Kalmar, a near coin-flip in the 1X2 market. Under 2.5 goals lands at 60% model probability, and Kalmar have kept three clean sheets in their last five, so a low-scoring affair is plausible.
The DNB on Mjallby at 2.15 (bet365) is the play. The h2h dominance provides an independent signal beyond raw form, and the away DNB price offers genuine value given the model's near-parity. Confidence stays measured: form lines are mixed on both sides.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 21.02.26 | Svenska Cupen | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 17.01.26 | Club Friendlies | 4–0 | O2.5 |
| 20.10.24 | Allsvenskan | 0–3 | O2.5 |
| 29.04.24 | Allsvenskan | 3–2 | O2.5 |
| 03.09.23 | Allsvenskan | 0–2 | U2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service