Italy arrive in strong shape despite a patchy five-game run: three wins, one draw, one loss, with seven goals scored. Turkey are in freefall, four defeats in five, conceding 11 times and still to keep a single clean sheet in that run. The absentee list hurts both sides, but Italy's depth is clearly superior and the head-to-head record reinforces that gap.
The model outputs 95% for an Italy win and 91% for over 2.5 goals. Those two numbers are driven by Turkey's defensive fragility (conceded in all 5 recent matches) and Italy's firepower shown in the 4-1 win over Turkey just a week ago. In four head-to-heads Italy have scored 10 goals and conceded only 3, with over 2.5 goals landing in 3 of those 4 meetings.
The tip is Italy DNB at whatever price the market offers. With a 95% win probability and zero head-to-head losses, the draw protection is a sensible cost. Alt: Over 2.5 goals at 91% model probability backs itself.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 28.09.26 | UEFA Nations League | 1–4 | O2.5 |
| 04.06.24 | Friendlies | 0–0 | U2.5 |
| 29.03.22 | Friendlies | 2–3 | O2.5 |
| 11.06.21 | European Championship | 0–3 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service