Italy arrive in fine form, winning 4 of their last 5 matches and keeping 4 clean sheets in that run. Belgium come off a World Cup campaign with attacking punch - 11 goals in 5 games - but also defensive fragility, conceding in 4 of those 5 outings. Moise Kean is out for Italy, while Belgium are missing Debast and Onana, weakening their defensive structure further.
The head-to-head numbers back Italy's resilience: 2 wins and 1 draw in the last 3 meetings, with Italy unbeaten. Italy conceded just 4 goals across their last 5 games and kept 4 clean sheets. Belgium's attack is live, but in 3 recent H2H matches only 2 ended with both teams scoring. The 1X double chance at 1.36 reflects Italy's home advantage and unbeaten H2H record.
The model points to Italy not losing here. The 1X at 1.36 (WilliamHill) is the play. As a riskier angle, BTTS YES at 1.67 is tempting given Belgium's firepower, but Italy's defensive record makes NO the safer lean.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 14.11.24 | UEFA Nations League | 0–1 | U2.5 |
| 10.10.24 | UEFA Nations League | 2–2 | O2.5 |
| 02.07.21 | European Championship | 1–2 | O2.5 |
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