Israel arrive at this Nations League B fixture on the back of two straight defeats, conceding nine goals across their last five matches. Kosovo, meanwhile, beat Ireland in their opener and have scored in 4 of their last 5 games. Two injured absentees on each side, but the balance of quality clearly favours the visitors. The h2h record (2 games, 0 Israel wins) reinforces the picture. The model's two key inputs: Kosovo's away goals-against tally (6 conceded in 5 games, manageable) versus Israel's defensive collapse (9 conceded in 5). Those numbers produce a 93% away-win probability and a 96% away-win-or-draw probability. Kosovo DNB at these numbers is the cleanest play. Israel have no clean sheet in either of the two previous meetings, and have kept just one in their last five. Kosovo to win, no margin for error needed.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 12.11.23 | UEFA European Championship Qualifiers | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 25.03.23 | UEFA European Championship Qualifiers | 1–1 | U2.5 |
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