San Siro in round 3, two heavyweights with something to prove already. Inter arrive unbeaten in five, four wins from four with a 4-1 hammering of Monza at home setting the tone. Napoli? They just lost at home to Como, and three defenders are out injured: Buongiorno, Marianucci and Mazzocchi.
The model puts Inter's win probability at 68% against odds of 1.67. Both last Serie A meetings ended with goals at both ends, but Napoli's defensive injuries change the picture. Inter kept 2 clean sheets in their last 5, scored in all 5. Napoli conceded in 4 of their last 5 outings.
I want the bigger price here. Napoli have shipped 5 goals in 2 H2H meetings from Inter's perspective, three defenders missing, and a morale dent from that Como loss. Inter win at 1.67 is the play, but I'll take Napoli to score as the risky alt at 1.95 - Napoli scored in all 5 recent games themselves.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 11.01.26 | Serie A | 2–2 | O2.5 |
| 25.10.25 | Serie A | 3–1 | O2.5 |
| 01.03.25 | Serie A | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 10.11.24 | Serie A | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 17.03.24 | Serie A | 1–1 | U2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service