Independiente Rivadavia host Fluminense in the second leg of this Libertadores last-16 tie, with the aggregate score locked at 0-0 after a goalless first leg in Brazil. Rivadavia arrive with a mixed run of five games: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses, scoring only 5 and conceding 6. Fluminense are equally inconsistent, collecting just 1 win in their last 5, with 5 goals scored and 6 conceded across all competitions. Both sides carry injury concerns, with Fluminense missing five players on the list.
The key numbers point firmly to a low-scoring affair. Across the three head-to-head meetings, only 1 produced more than 2.5 goals. In recent form, Rivadavia hit over 2.5 in 3 of 5 games, but Fluminense managed it in just 2 of 5. The model puts over 2.5 goals at 33% probability, strongly favouring the under. Both teams scored in only 2 of 3 h2h encounters, and BTTS lands at just 31% probability in the model.
Under 2.5 goals at 1.44 (bet365) is the call. The first leg finished 0-0, the h2h average is low, and both squads are depleted. This is a knockout tie where caution rules. As an alternative, BTTS No at 1.62 offers similar logic with a slightly different angle.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 12.08.26 | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 0–0 | U2.5 |
| 07.05.26 | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 16.04.26 | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 1–2 | O2.5 |
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