Independiente del Valle arrive in decent domestic form - three wins in five - but their defensive record is alarming. They have conceded in all five recent games and kept zero clean sheets. Flamengo, by contrast, have shut out opponents in three of their last five matches, conceding in only two, and arrive on a four-win run that includes a Libertadores victory over Cruzeiro. Four injured absentees hurt Flamengo's squad depth, but the core remains clearly superior.
The model puts Flamengo's win probability at 80%, with BTTS at 88% and over 2.5 goals at 96%. Del Valle has scored in all five recent games, so Flamengo keeping a clean sheet is plausible but not certain. The DNB price at 1.95-1.98 (away side) gives genuine value against an 80% win probability. Under 2.5 at 1.60-1.62 is simply too short given both the model and Del Valle's leaky backline.
Verdict: back Flamengo on Draw No Bet at 1.98 (bet365). If they win, you collect; if it draws, you get your stake back. The alt play is BTTS YES at 1.95, driven by Del Valle scoring in every single one of their last five outings.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 22.02.23 | CONMEBOL Recopa | 1–0 | U2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service