Iceland host Estonia in Nations League C Round 1 as heavy favourites at 1.28. Iceland's last five games produced 0 wins, 3 losses and only 3 goals scored, all away from home. Estonia arrive in better shape: 3 wins from 5, with 7 goals scored, but they have kept clean sheets in just 2 of those 5 matches and conceded in 3.
The key numbers: Iceland scored in only 2 of their last 5 outings and kept 0 clean sheets. Estonia scored in 4 of 5 but conceded in 3. The one h2h on record ended 1-1 with both teams scoring. BTTS landed in 2 of Iceland's last 5 and 2 of Estonia's last 5, giving a raw frequency of 40%. The market prices BTTS YES at around 2.15, implying roughly 47%, which looks slightly generous to the YES side given Iceland's chronic attacking misfires.
The model leans BTTS NO at 1.64. Iceland have failed to score in 3 of their last 5, and a Nations League C home fixture against modest opposition often produces a controlled, low-scoring result. Lay the BTTS YES at 2.15 and back NO at 1.64.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 08.01.23 | Friendlies | 1–1 | U2.5 |
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