Iceland arrive in decent Nations League shape after a 3-0 away win over Luxembourg, though they drew 1-1 at home to Estonia. Their last five games show 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses, scoring in 3 of 5. Bulgaria are equally inconsistent: 1W-2D-2L, with 2 clean sheets but also 3 matches in which they conceded. Two injuries for Iceland, one for Bulgaria, but nothing that shifts the balance significantly.
The model puts Iceland's win probability at 73%, against a market price of 1.42-1.44. BTTS probability sits at just 21%: Bulgaria scored in only 3 of their last 5, and Iceland's defence held firm in 3 of 5 too. Under 2.5 goals lands at 67% model probability, priced around 1.99-2.00.
DNB Home at 1.13 is too short. The 1X2 home win at 1.42 reflects the 73% model edge cleanly. Verdict: back Iceland to win at 1.42.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service