Hungary arrive at this Nations League B round 3 fixture with two wins and two draws from their last five, but their attack has been misfiring in competitive play: a 0-0 at Northern Ireland and a 0-1 home loss to Ukraine are the two most recent results. Georgia are similarly blunt, losing 0-1 to Northern Ireland and drawing 0-0 with Ukraine in their opening group games. There is no head-to-head record between these sides to lean on.
The numbers back a low-scoring game firmly. Hungary scored in just 2 of their last 5 matches; Georgia kept 3 clean sheets in 5. Georgia's last 5 produced zero matches over 2.5 goals. BTTS landed only once in Georgia's recent five. The market prices Under 2.5 at 1.73-1.74, which the model considers fair value given the defensive patterns on show.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 1.73 (bet365). The evidence from both camps points to a tight, low-scoring contest. For a riskier angle, Georgia Draw No Bet at 2.68 appeals given their solidity at the back.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
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