Hull arrive at this Premier League round-3 fixture on the back of back-to-back league wins, keeping clean sheets in both. Three clean sheets across their last five outings underline a disciplined defensive unit. Aston Villa, by contrast, have lost all five of their last five matches and conceded in every single one of them, shipping 11 goals in the process while missing several key players through injury.
The numbers paint a stark picture. Hull have conceded in just 2 of their last 5 games; Villa have conceded in all 5 of theirs. Villa scored in 3 of 5, so they carry some threat, but Hull's BTTS count sits at just 1 from 5. The model gives Hull a 94% win probability, with Villa rated at just 1%. Draw No Bet on Hull at 2.90 (10Bet) prices in a very healthy margin against the market's implied probability.
DNB Hull at 2.90 is the selection. The price is generous for a side that has kept three clean sheets in five and beaten Manchester Utd already this season. Confidence is tempered only by Villa's status as a top-flight club capable of a single moment of quality.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
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