Hradec Kralove arrive in decent form, unbeaten in five with three wins, but their Europa League run so far came against Tromso. Besiktas just eliminated Midtjylland with back-to-back clean sheets, winning 1-0 at home then 2-0 away. The quality gap is clear. Hradec scored in 4 of 5 recent games but conceded in 3 of 5, while Besiktas kept 2 clean sheets in their last 2 competitive fixtures. The model favours the Turkish side at every line. Besiktas away at 1.83 (bet365) offers genuine value against a Czech side stepping up sharply in class. The DNB price of 1.38 is too short; the straight win at 1.83 is the play.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
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