Hibernian arrive at this Edinburgh derby carrying European fatigue. Across their last five matches they have scored in only 3 of 5 and kept just 2 clean sheets in 5, with a 2-3 home defeat to Gent last time out at Easter Road. Hearts, by contrast, have not lost in five outings, scoring in all five games and producing 4 BTTS results from 5. Three defensive absentees for Hearts - Halkett, Kingsley and Renaud - are a concern, but their attacking output remains sharp.
The head-to-head record over the last five meetings leans clearly toward Hearts: Hibernian have won 2, lost 3, and conceded in 5 of those 5 fixtures. Hearts also hold a 63 percent model win probability here. Hibernian's home form offers little comfort: 2 wins and 1 loss from 5 across all competitions, and Rocky Bushiri remains absent.
Hearts DNB at 2.00 (bet365) prices in the away side's superior form and the h2h edge without the draw risk. The model's 63 percent away-win call makes 2.00 look generous. Confidence is tempered by the defensive injury list for Hearts.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 26.04.26 | Premiership | 1–2 | O2.5 |
| 10.02.26 | Premiership | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 27.12.25 | Premiership | 3–2 | O2.5 |
| 04.10.25 | Premiership | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 02.03.25 | Premiership | 2–1 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service