Heerenveen arrive into round 9 with a modest 1W-2D-2L record across their last five Eredivisie outings, shipping seven goals in the process. Three injured absentees add pressure on a defence that has kept just two clean sheets in that run. Excelsior, meanwhile, have scored in all five of their recent matches and conceded in four of them, carrying real two-way volatility into this fixture.
The numbers that matter: Excelsior have triggered BTTS in four of their last five games, while the head-to-head between these sides has gone over 2.5 goals in four of the last five meetings. Both teams to score has landed in two of those five h2h clashes, and the market prices BTTS YES at 1.44-1.50 across books.
The model sits at 56% for BTTS YES. That nudges above the implied probability at 1.44 (69%), so the price is short, but the structural case is solid. BTTS YES at 1.50 (bet365) is the call. Heerenveen home win at 1.65 is the alternative for those who trust the hosts' home advantage.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 07.03.26 | Eredivisie | 1–2 | O2.5 |
| 04.10.25 | Eredivisie | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 19.01.24 | Eredivisie | 3–0 | O2.5 |
| 23.09.23 | Eredivisie | 0–3 | O2.5 |
| 13.05.23 | Eredivisie | 0–0 | U2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service