Heerenveen arrive at this Eredivisie round-5 fixture with one win in four competitive matches, leaking eight goals in five outings and keeping just one clean sheet. AZ, by contrast, have won all five of their last games, including a 4-0 demolition of PSV and a 4-1 away win at Utrecht, conceding only three times across that run. Four of Heerenveen's last five head-to-heads ended with AZ scoring three or more, and Heerenveen have kept zero clean sheets in five H2H meetings. The model gives AZ a 90% win probability. With Heerenveen's defensive record this season, the away side are the only credible option. AZ DNB at 1.38 (bet365) removes the slim draw risk. Take it.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 12.04.26 | Eredivisie | 3–0 | O2.5 |
| 23.11.25 | Eredivisie | 3–1 | O2.5 |
| 22.05.25 | Eredivisie | 4–1 | O2.5 |
| 02.03.25 | Eredivisie | 3–1 | O2.5 |
| 14.09.24 | Eredivisie | 9–1 | O2.5 |
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