Hammarby host Degerfors in Allsvenskan round 13 as heavy favourites at 1.25-1.27. Recent form is mixed - two wins and three losses across their last five - but context matters: all three defeats came against top-half opposition. Degerfors arrive with one win in their last four competitive outings, no clean sheet in five, and two key absences in Ohlsson and Salifu.
The head-to-head record over five meetings is unambiguous: Hammarby 3W 2D 0L, 12 goals scored against 5 conceded. The model assigns 74% probability to a home win and 90% to a home win or draw. Degerfors have conceded in all five of their recent matches, while Hammarby have scored in four of their last five.
At 1.25 straight, the margin is thin. Draw No Bet at a modest premium removes the draw risk on a side that has not lost to Degerfors in five attempts. Back Hammarby DNB. The alt play is Over 2.5 at 1.53, supported by both sides' leaky defences and the h2h average of 3.4 goals per game.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 03.11.25 | Allsvenskan | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 26.05.25 | Allsvenskan | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 25.05.23 | Allsvenskan | 2–2 | O2.5 |
| 02.04.23 | Allsvenskan | 3–1 | O2.5 |
| 22.08.22 | Allsvenskan | 5–1 | O2.5 |
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