Hamburger SV arrive into Bundesliga Round 6 with a deeply uneven record: three wins but two heavy defeats, conceding 13 goals across their last five outings. Stuttgart, by contrast, have kept four clean sheets in their last five matches, conceded just once in that span, and backed it up with a 3-0 Champions League win midweek. Six Stuttgart players are listed injured, but their defensive structure has shown no sign of cracking.
The numbers firmly point one way. Stuttgart's Draw No Bet price sits at 1.38 (bet365), while the model assigns them a 56 percent win probability against just 22 for Hamburg. HSV conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches; Stuttgart conceded in only 1 of theirs. In the most recent head-to-head, Stuttgart won 4-0 away.
Stuttgart DNB at 1.38 is the call. The handicap cushion removes the slim draw risk without requiring a big price sacrifice. Confidence is moderate given Stuttgart's injury list, but the underlying form gap is hard to ignore.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 12.04.26 | Bundesliga | 4–0 | O2.5 |
| 30.11.25 | Bundesliga | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 05.06.23 | Bundesliga | 1–3 | O2.5 |
| 01.06.23 | Bundesliga | 3–0 | O2.5 |
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