Hajduk Split host Ajax in Round 1 of the UEFA Conference League. The Croatians arrive in decent shape, winning 4 of their last 5 games across all competitions, but their one European debut here adds a layer of uncertainty. Ajax come in with mixed domestic results - two draws against Nijmegen and Excelsior flanking big wins - yet their attacking output is impossible to ignore at this level. Five injuries in their squad, including Dolberg and Adingra, thin the forward options but not fatally.
The key numbers: Ajax have registered BTTS in all 5 of their last 5 matches, scoring in every single one and conceding in every single one. Hajduk scored in 4 of their last 5 but kept 3 clean sheets - mainly against domestic opposition. Ajax's 14 goals scored in 5 games signals a high-tempo attack that even a solid Hajduk backline will struggle to completely silence. The market prices BTTS YES at 1.67-1.70, which the model reads as value given Ajax's near-perfect BTTS record.
Verdict: BTTS YES at 1.67 (bet365). Hajduk will find a way to score at home - they scored against Din. Zagreb just days ago - and Ajax's defensive fragility (0 clean sheets in 5) makes the double-scoring outcome the most data-supported play here.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
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