H. Beer Sheva scraped through against Vikingur Reykjavik on aggregate but their form sheet reads poorly: one win from five, conceding ten goals across those matches. They kept a single clean sheet and their defence was breached in four of the five games. Crvena zvezda arrive in a completely different mood, four wins from five, 18 goals scored and only four conceded, with three clean sheets. They dismantled Larne 9-0 on aggregate in the previous round and followed that with a 5-0 domestic win over Macva.
The numbers point firmly in one direction. Beer Sheva scored in all five of their recent matches but conceded in four. Zvezda scored in all five and conceded in only two. The market has the away side at 1.83-1.85, which looks fair rather than generous, but the draw no bet price of 1.38 removes the draw risk at a workable margin.
Crvena zvezda DNB at 1.38 is the core play. The hosts offer little defensive solidity, and Zvezda's attacking output over five games - 18 goals - underlines the gap in class. Confidence is measured given the single-leg knockout format and Beer Sheva's home advantage.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
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